Outlook
In the next few quarters, given the high level of uncertainty which we are currently experiencing the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to be significant for the Group.
The Government & Agencies and Energy & Resources segments will continue to be resilient. Healthcare & Seniors are progressively returning to pre-Covid level. Clearly, some segments, such as Sports & Leisure will not recover until the pandemic is over. Others, such as Corporate Services and Education will see activity improving progressively.
Benefits & Rewards employee benefits issue volumes will return progressively to growth as digitalization and penetration continue to progress, strengthened by working from home trends. This progression could be impacted somewhat by the rising level of unemployment. On the revenue side, the progression is linked to reimbursement patterns and impacted negatively by extremely low interest rates.
At this stage, we see an improvement in first half Fiscal 2021 relative to the second half Fiscal 2020, with an organic decline between -20% and -25%.
- The slow ramp up in S&L we experienced from July to September, mostly in France, is slowing down;
- Education is trending well in Europe but remains volatile in the US with activities varying a lot from one week to another;
- Corporate Services was on a very encouraging trend from July to September in Europe but there are signs that it will be more difficult in the next few months. North America remains very impacted in food services with very slow improvement;
- Energy & Resources, Government & Agencies, Healthcare & Seniors are progressively stabilizing and bring us resilience.
Until activity levels return to more normal levels, the Group is still using all available furlough programs. Strong restructuring measures have and continue to be taken to protect margins going forward, as government support falls away. Detailed work is being conducted across the board in all segments and activities to reduce SG&A.
Our hypothesis for the first half Fiscal 2021 Group underlying operating margin is between 2 and 2.5%.
The free cash flow for the first half Fiscal 2021 will be impacted by the expensing of restructuring costs, cash outflows linked to some payment delays obtained in second half Fiscal 2020 and the reimbursement of the 2020 Olympic Games hospitality packages. We estimate the sum of those three factors to weigh for -250 million euro on our free cash flow. On top of this, the recurrent free cash flow is usually weaker in the first half than the second and we are working with a recurrent free cash flow hypothesis of about -100 million euro for first half Fiscal 2021.
Looking further out, on the basis that the pandemic will be over by 2021 calendar year end, the Group aims to return to sustained growth and to rapidly increase the underlying operating margin back over the pre-Covid level.
The Board and the Executive Committee extend their sincere thanks to the 420,000 employees for their dedication to serving their consumers in a very difficult period for all.
Please note that Sodexo is organizing a virtual Investor Day on November 2, 2020. In a period where visibility is particularly reduced, the meeting will provide insight into how the Group adapted to the crisis and some of the most significant trends coming out of the pandemic. During this event, we will highlight and reaffirm the resilience and pertinence of our business model today and in the future, the progress we have made in the last two years and how, in a much more complex operating environment, the Group is well positioned to leverage future opportunities.
To read the full version of the press release, please download the PDF:
Conference call
Sodexo will hold a conference call (in English) today at 9:00 a.m. (Paris time), 8:00 a.m. (London time) to comment on its results for Fiscal 2020. Please find below the numbers to connect
- from the UK may dial +44 2071 928 338,
- from France + 33 1 70 70 07 81,
- from the USA +1 877-870-9135,
- followed by the passcode 63 29 034.
The press release, presentation and webcast will be available on the Group website www.sodexo.com in both the "Latest News" section and the "Finance - Financial Results" section.